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Braga: Thiago Monteiro vs Elmer Moeller

● quote 13s ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $225.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: Braga: Thiago Monteiro vs Elmer Moeller
0.1¢
Thiago Monteiro
100.0¢
Elmer Moeller
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets18Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:271 trades$598.0K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 69 min agoofficial metadata 28s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Elmer Moeller · $61.5K net·14 wallets(3🐋)·$349.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLElmer Moeller$54.6K@ 100¢·0x08a3…8666

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$8.5K
tracked
$598.0K

14 verified profitable wallets: Elmer Moeller · $61.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest position change: +59.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 69 minutes old.
  • •Executable SELL price moved 59.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-12 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Monteiro and Elmer Moeller in the Braga, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Monteiro' if Thiago Monteiro advances against Elmer Moeller. This market will resolve to 'Elmer Moeller' if Elmer Moeller advances against Thiago Monteiro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASESELL Thiago Monteiro4h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Thiago Monteiro4h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Thiago Monteiro4h ago
Outcome checks pending
POSITION CHANGESELL Thiago Monteiro@ 59.0¢4h ago
15m CONFIRMED +11.2pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Elmer Moeller DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $50.2K → $4.8K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Thiago Monteiro; negative values favor Elmer Moeller. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hThiago Monteiro · $0
6hElmer Moeller · $8.5K
24hElmer Moeller · $13.4K

Thiago Monteiro price VWAP

Volume-weighted Thiago Monteiro price. Elmer Moeller fills are converted to the complementary Thiago Monteiro probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h31.2¢▼ below by 31.2pp
VWAP 7d31.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Thiago Monteiro price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$224
80¢
$9.3K
75¢
$2.5K
70¢
$1.4K
65¢
$0
60¢
$4
55¢
$5.8K
50¢
$80.3K
45¢
$102.2K
40¢
$18.1K
35¢
$3.5K
30¢
$3.2K
25¢
$258.9K
20¢
$13.8K
15¢
$307
10¢
$6.3K
5¢
$4.8K
0¢
← now
$87.4K

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLElmer Moeller$54.6K@ 99.9¢0x08a3…8666🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLElmer Moeller$10.7K@ 99.9¢
xabidaking0x3f98…0aa1
🐋—about 4 hours ago
SELLThiago Monteiro$26.0K@ 51.9¢
Vps10xb2d2…3910
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYThiago Monteiro$12.4K@ 51.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYThiago Monteiro$12.4K@ 51.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYThiago Monteiro$38.6K@ 49.6¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$16.0K@ 74.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$16.0K@ 74.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$20.7K@ 74.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$15.9K@ 74.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$14.1K@ 74.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$32.9K@ 74.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYElmer Moeller$11.0K@ 74.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYThiago Monteiro$20.4K@ 25.0¢
Vps10xb2d2…3910
🐋—about 6 hours ago
SELLElmer Moeller$10.2K@ 75.0¢
Vps10xb2d2…3910
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Elmer Moeller$101.6K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·5 fills
ferrariChampions2026Thiago Monteiro$78.6K
BUY VWAP 49.6¢·6 fills
RN1Elmer Moeller$36.6K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·7 fills
RN1Thiago Monteiro$29.0K
BUY VWAP 46.4¢·7 fills
UpTheBluesElmer Moeller$23.1K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·19 fills
Vps1Thiago Monteiro$20.4K
BUY VWAP 25.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardElmer Moeller$19.5K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·17 fills
UpTheBluesThiago Monteiro$19.4K
BUY VWAP 48.3¢·18 fills
0xe911…3d4eElmer Moeller$11.1K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·2 fills
0x076d…8d4cElmer Moeller$11.0K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.