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Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5)

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $107.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $87.2KEvent: LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
99.9¢
Movistar KOI
0.1¢
Team Heretics
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets36Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:19 trades$31.5K trackedsource coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 45 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Movistar KOI · $7.0K net·2 wallets·$13.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMovistar KOI$8.5K@ 55¢·BrotherObama

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Team Heretics pressure: $4.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.9K
6h
−$6.0K
tracked
$31.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: Movistar KOI · $7.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 45 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Team Heretics or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-30 19:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI wins 2 or more games than Team Heretics in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Team Heretics".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Movistar KOI and Team Heretics in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 10:15 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI wins 2 or more games than Team Heretics in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Team Heretics". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 30, 2026 at 10:15 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf201…527e2 linked markets · $25.7K gross
thanhngu1232 linked markets · $16.0K gross
ColinHe2 linked markets · $14.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Team Heretics DOWN 4.9pp · near-book depth $0 → $0 · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Movistar KOI; negative values favor Team Heretics. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTeam Heretics · $4.9K
6hTeam Heretics · $6.0K
24hTeam Heretics · $325

Movistar KOI price VWAP

Volume-weighted Movistar KOI price. Team Heretics fills are converted to the complementary Movistar KOI probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h65.6¢▲ above by 34.3pp
VWAP 7d65.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Movistar KOI price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$7.8K
90¢
$0
85¢
$30
80¢
$0
75¢
$2
70¢
$5
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$3.5K
50¢
$20.2K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.