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UFC Fight Night: Gauge Young vs. Stan Dorsainvil (Lightweight, Prelims)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $67.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $158.0KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Gauge Young vs. Stan Dorsainvil (Lightweight, Prelims)
62.5¢
YES
37.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%
24h sample:22 trades$76.8K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 18 min agoofficial metadata 15s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYGauge Young (YES)$16.2K@ 61¢·Painfulvoid

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$7.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$7.7K
6h
+$46.9K
tracked
$76.8K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 18 minutes old.
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Gauge Young" if Gauge Young is officially declared the winner of the fight against Stan Dorsainvil at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, scheduled for August 22, 2026. It will resolve to "Stan Dorsainvil" if Stan Dorsainvil is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 5, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Gauge Young@ 64.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$7.7K
6h+$46.9K
24h+$53.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current62.5¢
VWAP 24h61.2¢▲ above by 1.3pp
VWAP 7d61.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$80.5K
55¢
$2.2K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYGauge Young (YES)$16.2K@ 61.0¢
Painfulvoid0xd696…8a49
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

PainfulvoidGauge Young$30.9K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·6 fills
0x56b9…79a2Gauge Young$14.0K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·3 fills
Sassy-BucketStan Dorsainvil$10.1K
BUY VWAP 38.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.