PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-30?

● quote 53s ago
Sports→Closes: about 10 hoursLiquidity: $285.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $214.2KEvent: Real Madrid CF vs. Málaga CF
89.5¢
YES
10.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection28Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 92%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:153 trades$141.9K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 67%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 13s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$18.4K@ 89¢·quavoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW YES SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: $39.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$39.4K
6h
+$117.5K
tracked
$141.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: YES · $3.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 92% · priority 59

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 10h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-30 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.laliga.com/
Outcome meaning

•If Real Madrid CF wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 30, 2026 If Real Madrid CF wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
UpTheBlues2 linked markets · $3.7K gross
0xbd69…82f72 linked markets · $32 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 89.0¢53m ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 89.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 89.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 89.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $39.4K
6hYES · $117.5K
24hYES · $138.9K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current89.5¢
VWAP 24h89.2¢▲ above by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d88.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$23.9K
85¢
← now
$159.7K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$12.1K@ 90.0¢
dirss0x1385…db91
🐋—29 minutes ago
BUYYES$18.4K@ 89.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYYES$10.7K@ 89.0¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 89.0¢0x5016…1eeb🐋—about 8 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Málaga CF win on 2026-08-30?
2.9¢$200.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels
94.5¢$451.0Kpriority45Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$410.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
0.3¢$407.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-30?
49.5¢$394.9Kpriority68Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Hull City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.3¢$277.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics
90.5¢$247.5Kpriority48Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

quavooYes$115.5K
BUY VWAP 88.7¢·87 fills
dirssYes$12.1K
BUY VWAP 90.0¢·1 fill
0x5016…1eebYes$10.0K
BUY VWAP 89.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.