Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs magic (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

● quote 98 min ago
SportsCloses: about 9 hoursLiquidity: $234.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $209.5KEvent: Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs magic (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
64.5¢
YES
35.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly92Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:20 trades$60.5K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 118 min agoofficial metadata 101 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYmagic (NO)$26.7K@ 35¢·111111111115

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.4K
6h
−$24.7K
tracked
$60.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$17.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 98 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 118 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 101 minutes old.
  • Less than 9h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-19 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between FUT Esports and magic in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 19, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "FUT Esports" if FUT Esports win the match against magic. This market will resolve to "magic" if magic win the match against FUT Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 19, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY magic@ 36.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY magic@ 34.0¢13h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.4K
6h$24.7K
24h$33.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current64.5¢
VWAP 24h65.3¢▼ below by 0.8pp
VWAP 7d65.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$61.9K
60¢
← now
$151
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYmagic (NO)$26.7K@ 35.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYmagic (NO)$15.0K@ 34.4¢0xf559…f462🐋about 13 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

111111111115magic$26.7K
BUY VWAP 35.0¢·1 fill
0xf559…f462magic$17.0K
BUY VWAP 34.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.