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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $781.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $233.6KEvent: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
39.5¢
YES
60.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection33Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:22 trades$112.6K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $37.0K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$37.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSt. Louis Cardinals (YES)$35.2K@ 40¢·tikstt

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$36.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$36.9K
6h
−$1.1K
tracked
$112.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$37.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 23 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-29 22:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for August 22 at 6:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals" if the St. Louis Cardinals win the game. This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY St. Louis Cardinals@ 40.0¢18m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Philadelphia Phillies@ 60.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Philadelphia Phillies@ 56.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h STALLED +3.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$36.9K
6h−$1.1K
24h−$38.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current39.5¢
VWAP 24h41.7¢▼ below by 2.2pp
VWAP 7d41.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$27.9K
40¢
$82.6K
35¢
← now
$2.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSt. Louis Cardinals (YES)$35.2K@ 40.0¢
tikstt0xe4a7…4a1d
🐋—24 minutes ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$27.9K@ 59.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$23.5K@ 55.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tiksttSt. Louis Cardinals$35.2K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·1 fill
texaskidPhiladelphia Phillies$33.9K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·2 fills
SDTradingPhiladelphia Phillies$32.7K
BUY VWAP 55.8¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.