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Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-08-29?

Sports→Settlement: NOLiquidity: $449.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $267.8KEvent: 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Paderborn 07
0.0¢
YES payout
100.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $16.4K net·5 wallets·$23.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$35.0K@ 64¢·NiNo999

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome NO. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-29 13:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga
Outcome meaning

•If 1. FSV Mainz 05 wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 29, 2026 If 1. FSV Mainz 05 wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 63.0¢6d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $15.9K
6hYES · $20.1K
24hYES · $59.8K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h56.0¢▼ below by 56.0pp
VWAP 7d56.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$104.5K
55¢
$1.7K
50¢
$3.1K
45¢
$258
40¢
$2.6K
35¢
$1.4K
30¢
$300
25¢
$5
20¢
$8.1K
15¢
$6.1K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$2.9K

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$35.0K@ 64.4¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—6 days ago
SELLYES$11.9K@ 62.0¢0x3328…e6b8🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$24.1K@ 63.0¢0x3328…e6b8🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$11.2K@ 62.0¢
gransaaa0x4d30…a42d
🐋—6 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

NiNo999Yes$35.0K
BUY VWAP 64.4¢·1 fill
0x3328…e6b8Yes$24.1K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesNo$15.5K
BUY VWAP 56.9¢·12 fills
gransaaaYes$11.2K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.