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UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Main Card)

● quote 2 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 24 hoursLiquidity: $308.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $222.8KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Main Card)
15.5¢
Song Yadong
84.5¢
Umar Nurmagomedov
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:89 trades$62.9K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUmar Nurmagomedov$19.9K@ 82¢·SupermanJoe

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Umar Nurmagomedov pressure: $6.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$6.6K
6h
−$12.7K
tracked
$62.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: Umar Nurmagomedov · $1.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.
  • •Less than 24h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Umar Nurmagomedov or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-30 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Song Yadong" if Song Yadong is officially declared the winner of the fight against Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Umar Nurmagomedov" if Umar Nurmagomedov is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Song Yadong" if Song Yadong is officially declared the winner of the fight against Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026. It will resolve to "Umar Nurmagomedov" if Umar Nurmagomedov is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 12, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Umar Nurmagomedov@ 83.0¢2d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Song Yadong; negative values favor Umar Nurmagomedov. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUmar Nurmagomedov · $6.6K
6hUmar Nurmagomedov · $12.7K
24hUmar Nurmagomedov · $38.8K

Song Yadong price VWAP

Volume-weighted Song Yadong price. Umar Nurmagomedov fills are converted to the complementary Song Yadong probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current15.5¢
VWAP 24h16.2¢▼ below by 0.7pp
VWAP 7d17.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Song Yadong price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$10.1K
15¢
← now
$105.2K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUmar Nurmagomedov$14.0K@ 84.0¢
Painfulvoid0xd696…8a49
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYUmar Nurmagomedov$10.1K@ 84.0¢
christianox0x0dc6…9889
🐋—about 13 hours ago
BUYUmar Nurmagomedov$19.9K@ 82.5¢
SupermanJoe0x9561…d255
🐋—2 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

PainfulvoidUmar Nurmagomedov$23.4K
BUY VWAP 82.7¢·3 fills
SupermanJoeUmar Nurmagomedov$19.9K
BUY VWAP 82.5¢·1 fill
christianoxUmar Nurmagomedov$14.3K
BUY VWAP 84.0¢·2 fills
0xe907…cff6Song Yadong$10.4K
BUY VWAP 17.9¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.