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Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics

● quote 58s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $231.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $861.4KEvent: Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics
42.5¢
Baltimore Orioles
57.5¢
Athletics
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets83Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:137 trades$392.6K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 13s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Baltimore Orioles · $16.6K net·6 wallets·$19.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAthletics$115.5K@ 49¢·0xf668…5c69

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$594
6h
−$11.3K
tracked
$392.6K

6 verified profitable wallets: Baltimore Orioles · $16.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 0

Since latest position change: +6.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-05 01:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and Athletics, scheduled for August 28 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASESELL Athletics2h ago
Outcome checks pending
POSITION CHANGEBUY Athletics@ 52.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -19.0pp1h INVALIDATED -28.0pp
POSITION CHANGESELL Baltimore Orioles@ 50.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -9.0pp1h INVALIDATED -24.0pp
LARGE FLOWSELL Athletics@ 48.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +20.0pp
Latest book event: Athletics DOWN 8.0pp · near-book depth $15 → $143 · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Baltimore Orioles; negative values favor Athletics. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBaltimore Orioles · $594
6hAthletics · $11.3K
24hAthletics · $27.7K

Baltimore Orioles price VWAP

Volume-weighted Baltimore Orioles price. Athletics fills are converted to the complementary Baltimore Orioles probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.5¢
VWAP 24h52.5¢▼ below by 10.0pp
VWAP 7d52.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Baltimore Orioles price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$3
80¢
$86
75¢
$8.5K
70¢
$15.4K
65¢
$1.1K
60¢
$8.4K
55¢
$2.9K
50¢
$314.2K
45¢
$23.9K
40¢
← now
$6.3K
35¢
$12.0K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAthletics$10.3K@ 63.0¢0x33c7…dfef🐋—11 minutes ago
BUYAthletics$20.8K@ 49.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLAthletics$20.4K@ 48.0¢0xf668…5c69🐋—about 3 hours ago
SELLAthletics$92.5K@ 48.0¢0xf668…5c69🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYBaltimore Orioles$10.2K@ 52.0¢0x33c7…dfef🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYAthletics$115.5K@ 49.1¢0xf668…5c69🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYAthletics$16.7K@ 46.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋—about 14 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf668…5c69Athletics$115.5K
BUY VWAP 49.1¢·1 fill
0x3dfb…abafAthletics$20.8K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
0x5e94…5ba1Athletics$18.0K
BUY VWAP 45.9¢·2 fills
JeffplatterAthletics$13.4K
BUY VWAP 50.4¢·4 fills
HomeRunHazardBaltimore Orioles$10.6K
BUY VWAP 65.6¢·3 fills
0x33c7…dfefBaltimore Orioles$10.2K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.