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Monterrey Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Elise Mertens

● quote 6 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $298.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.4MEvent: Monterrey Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Elise Mertens
3.0¢
Nikola Bartunkova
99.9¢
Elise Mertens
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets12Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:288 trades$511.7K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Nikola Bartunkova · $24.2K net·12 wallets(2🐋)·$207.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNikola Bartunkova$38.9K@ 54¢·Holtur95

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Elise Mertens pressure: $7.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$7.1K
6h
+$51.6K
tracked
$511.7K

12 verified profitable wallets: Nikola Bartunkova · $24.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +18.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 6 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 18.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Elise Mertens or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-05 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Nikola Bartunkova and Elise Mertens in the Monterrey Open, originally scheduled for August 28, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nikola Bartunkova' if Nikola Bartunkova advances against Elise Mertens. This market will resolve to 'Elise Mertens' if Elise Mertens advances against Nikola Bartunkova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Elise Mertens40m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Elise Mertens@ 82.0¢49m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Nikola Bartunkova@ 22.0¢52m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Elise Mertens59m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Nikola Bartunkova DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $2.5K → $12.1K · 12s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nikola Bartunkova; negative values favor Elise Mertens. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hElise Mertens · $7.1K
6hNikola Bartunkova · $51.6K
24hNikola Bartunkova · $41.6K

Nikola Bartunkova price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nikola Bartunkova price. Elise Mertens fills are converted to the complementary Nikola Bartunkova probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.0¢
VWAP 24h43.5¢▼ below by 40.5pp
VWAP 7d43.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nikola Bartunkova price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$23.2K
85¢
$22.6K
80¢
$15.5K
75¢
$22.7K
70¢
$11.1K
65¢
$11.2K
60¢
$14.1K
55¢
$36.6K
50¢
$74.3K
45¢
$13.0K
40¢
$68.9K
35¢
$21.5K
30¢
$17.8K
25¢
$29.2K
20¢
$19.3K
15¢
$24.6K
10¢
$7.2K
5¢
$11.8K
0¢
← now
$67.1K

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLElise Mertens$13.8K@ 99.9¢
Jeffplatter0xb399…608e
🐋—28 minutes ago
BUYElise Mertens$11.6K@ 99.7¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—38 minutes ago
BUYNikola Bartunkova$12.3K@ 34.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNikola Bartunkova$11.2K@ 62.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNikola Bartunkova$10.7K@ 92.3¢
hanlun0x9480…7456
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNikola Bartunkova$38.9K@ 53.8¢
Holtur950xc547…c7f0
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYNikola Bartunkova$13.1K@ 52.9¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYElise Mertens$13.2K@ 60.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYNikola Bartunkova$15.0K@ 42.0¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49Nikola Bartunkova$99.5K
BUY VWAP 32.2¢·14 fills
0x1610…ae49Elise Mertens$64.6K
BUY VWAP 33.2¢·11 fills
Holtur95Nikola Bartunkova$38.9K
BUY VWAP 53.8¢·1 fill
FlaznorpElise Mertens$24.9K
BUY VWAP 71.2¢·14 fills
NiNo999Nikola Bartunkova$15.0K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill
0xa0f2…1848Elise Mertens$14.2K
BUY VWAP 65.5¢·11 fills
ZaiZoiBeleNikola Bartunkova$13.9K
BUY VWAP 69.4¢·6 fills
0x2c33…0563Elise Mertens$13.2K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
hd777Elise Mertens$11.6K
BUY VWAP 99.7¢·1 fill
hanlunNikola Bartunkova$10.7K
BUY VWAP 92.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.