Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C

● quote 177 min ago
SportsCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $441.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.0MEvent: Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly38Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:130 trades$490.7K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 218 min agoofficial metadata 172 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMOUZ (YES)$123.4K@ 65¢·0x1e52…eb43

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$5.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.5K
6h
+$244.8K
tracked
$490.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$73.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +3.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 177 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 218 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 172 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-16 19:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal 1 match between MOUZ and PARIVISION in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against PARIVISION. This market will resolve to "PARIVISION" if PARIVISION win the match against MOUZ. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before August 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 16, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $88.8K gross
0x0063…2dd22 linked markets · $48.3K gross
0x9166…b4792 linked markets · $31.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY MOUZ@ 97.0¢5h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY MOUZ@ 91.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY MOUZ@ 74.0¢6h ago
15m CONFIRMED +17.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY MOUZ@ 74.0¢6h ago
15m CONFIRMED +17.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $48.4K$14.5K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$5.5K
6h+$244.8K
24h+$239.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h71.8¢▲ above by 28.1pp
VWAP 7d71.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$48.7K
90¢
$26.7K
85¢
$37.8K
80¢
$5
75¢
$34
70¢
$1.9K
65¢
$289.9K
60¢
$85.8K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLMOUZ (YES)$16.6K@ 99.9¢0xff80…9b4d🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYMOUZ (YES)$26.2K@ 92.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYMOUZ (YES)$23.3K@ 87.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYMOUZ (YES)$73.3K@ 67.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYMOUZ (YES)$24.9K@ 66.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYMOUZ (YES)$14.9K@ 66.0¢0x6f3e…bcf8🐋about 7 hours ago
SELLPARIVISION (NO)$17.3K@ 34.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYMOUZ (YES)$123.4K@ 65.0¢0x1e52…eb43🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYPARIVISION (NO)$20.6K@ 37.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋about 7 hours ago
BUYPARIVISION (NO)$17.2K@ 37.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋about 7 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D
0.1¢$1.4Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP - Map 2 Winner
0.1¢$965.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
25.5¢$867.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B
91.5¢$827.9Kpriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner
0.1¢$789.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$686.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$431.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
100.0¢$395.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1e52…eb43MOUZ$123.4K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563MOUZ$74.5K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·3 fills
0x1610…ae49MOUZ$73.3K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill
0x1610…ae49PARIVISION$45.1K
BUY VWAP 29.2¢·3 fills
0x6f3e…bcf8MOUZ$14.9K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.