Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 20?

● quote 45s ago
Crypto→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $26.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $447.3KEvent: Bitcoin above ___ on August 20?
43.8¢
YES
56.2¢
NO
0.8¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution73Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%
24h sample:81 trades$55.8K trackedsource coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 24 min agoofficial metadata 48s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$6.3K@ 63¢·0xe9c6…95c9

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$4.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.8K
6h
−$9.0K
tracked
$55.8K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.8¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 24 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Tttyh2 linked markets · $133.3K gross
0xf67e…a55c3 linked markets · $110.6K gross
0x06dc…45248 linked markets · $41.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.3pp · near-book depth $2.6K → $2.9K · 27s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$4.8K
6h−$9.0K
24h−$6.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current43.8¢
VWAP 24h23.0¢▲ above by 20.8pp
VWAP 7d23.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$39
50¢
$5.8K
45¢
$7.5K
40¢
← now
$1.4K
35¢
$11.3K
30¢
$2.0K
25¢
$10
20¢
$239
15¢
$0
10¢
$265
5¢
$21
0¢
$27.3K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 20?
93.4¢$290.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 20?
99.0¢$239.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 20?
100.0¢$224.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 20?
99.5¢$200.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 20?
6.3¢$197.4Kpriority43Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 20?
100.0¢$191.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 20?
100.0¢$151.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 20?
100.0¢$93.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.