PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 20?

● quote 113 min ago
Crypto→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $22.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $244.6KEvent: Bitcoin above ___ on August 20?
87.8¢
YES
12.2¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection17Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution67Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority50Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:103 trades$31.9K trackedsource coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 119 min agoofficial metadata 115 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$4.2K@ 84¢·0x55be…dca3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$5.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.3K
6h
+$6.8K
tracked
$31.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$1 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 50

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 113 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 119 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 115 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Tttyh2 linked markets · $133.3K gross
0xf67e…a55c3 linked markets · $110.6K gross
0x06dc…45247 linked markets · $27.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.8pp · near-book depth $7 → $70 · 11s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$5.3K
6h+$6.8K
24h+$3.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current87.8¢
VWAP 24h58.6¢▲ above by 29.2pp
VWAP 7d56.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$5
80¢
$10.8K
75¢
$6.7K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$2.5K
40¢
$3.6K
35¢
$36
30¢
$4.1K
25¢
$121
20¢
$66
15¢
$205
10¢
$767
5¢
$3.0K
0¢
$1.1K

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 20?
37.5¢$316.6Kpriority43Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 20?
100.0¢$221.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 20?
100.0¢$193.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 20?
97.8¢$193.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 20?
99.6¢$177.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 20?
6.7¢$158.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 20?
100.0¢$108.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 20?
100.0¢$93.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x55be…dca3Yes$10.0K
BUY VWAP 82.9¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.