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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 20?

● quote 113 min ago
Crypto→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $21.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $193.4KEvent: Bitcoin above ___ on August 20?
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets2Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:52 trades$89.4K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 293 min agoofficial metadata 115 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$25.6K@ 100¢·Tttyh

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$23.2K
tracked
$89.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$2.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 113 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 293 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 115 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Tttyh2 linked markets · $133.3K gross
0xf67e…a55c3 linked markets · $110.6K gross
0x06dc…45247 linked markets · $27.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$23.2K
24h+$43.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h99.7¢▲ above by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d98.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$89.4K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$1.3K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLYES$12.0K@ 99.9¢
Tttyh0x2322…3ede
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYYES$25.6K@ 99.9¢
Tttyh0x2322…3ede
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

TttyhYes$25.6K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.