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Spread: Texans (-2.5)

Sports→Settlement: BengalsLiquidity: $120.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $106.2KEvent: Bengals vs. Texans
0.0¢
Texans payout
100.0¢
Bengals payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Texans · $5.8K net·4 wallets·$12.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTexans$36.2K@ 52¢·maz26

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Bengals. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-20 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Texans" if the Texans win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bengals". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Bengals".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texans" if the Texans win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bengals". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Bengals". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
maz263 linked markets · $407.8K gross
RN15 linked markets · $45.4K gross
mooseborzoi3 linked markets · $44.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Texans@ 53.0¢4d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Texans@ 53.0¢4d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Texans; negative values favor Bengals. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTexans · $0
6hBengals · $12
24hBengals · $9.9K

Texans price VWAP

Volume-weighted Texans price. Bengals fills are converted to the complementary Texans probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h52.9¢▼ below by 52.9pp
VWAP 7d52.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Texans price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$3.9K
55¢
$7.3K
50¢
$91.4K
45¢
$2.5K
40¢
$4
35¢
$18
30¢
$6
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTexans$11.3K@ 52.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—4 days ago
BUYTexans$36.2K@ 52.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—4 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

maz26Texans$47.7K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.