Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays

● quote 49 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $207.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $357.5KEvent: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
99.6¢
YES
0.4¢
NO
0.5¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets76Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution95Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:58 trades$141.1K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 65 min agoofficial metadata 50 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $67.3K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$88.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTampa Bay Rays (NO)$47.9K@ 55¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$4.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.2K
6h
−$67.8K
tracked
$141.1K

5 verified profitable wallets: −$67.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.5¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -61.3pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 49 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 65 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 50 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 16:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for August 16 at 12:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
curie2 linked markets · $3.9K gross
0x0f38…a0ed2 linked markets · $20 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 62.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -60.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $140$325 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$4.2K
6h$67.8K
24h$71.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.6¢
VWAP 24h43.9¢▲ above by 55.6pp
VWAP 7d43.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.0K
90¢
$1.8K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$6.2K
70¢
$7.6K
65¢
$26
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$53.1K
40¢
$33.8K
35¢
$0
30¢
$5.7K
25¢
$31.9K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTampa Bay Rays (NO)$21.3K@ 72.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYBaltimore Orioles (YES)$10.5K@ 27.4¢
Eztennis0x4be1…aa70
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays (NO)$47.9K@ 55.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Tampa Bay Rays$69.2K
BUY VWAP 59.3¢·2 fills
EztennisBaltimore Orioles$13.0K
BUY VWAP 29.6¢·3 fills
FeromontTampa Bay Rays$11.2K
BUY VWAP 58.2¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.