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Vikings vs. Bears

● quote 54s ago
Sports→Closes: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $945.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $327.5KEvent: Vikings vs. Bears
34.5¢
Vikings
65.5¢
Bears
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:14 trades$183.3K tracked36% 🐋source coverage 56%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Bears · $3.3K net·2 wallets·$3.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBears$87.0K@ 67¢·optimistic-dragon

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$6
6h
−$110.1K
tracked
$183.3K

2 verified profitable wallets: Bears · $3.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 79% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 8h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If Vikings wins, the market will resolve to "Vikings".

•If Bears wins, the market will resolve to "Bears".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00PM ET: If Vikings wins, the market will resolve to "Vikings". If Bears wins, the market will resolve to "Bears". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Vikings@ 35.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Bears@ 67.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Vikings; negative values favor Bears. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBears · $6
6hBears · $110.1K
24hBears · $133.6K

Vikings price VWAP

Volume-weighted Vikings price. Bears fills are converted to the complementary Vikings probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current34.5¢
VWAP 24h33.2¢▲ above by 1.3pp
VWAP 7d33.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Vikings price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$9
30¢
← now
$184.7K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYVikings$24.8K@ 34.0¢
BTCGambler2470x31c5…ede4
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYBears$42.9K@ 67.0¢
optimistic-dragon0xa92f…ea6e
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYBears$87.0K@ 67.0¢
optimistic-dragon0xa92f…ea6e
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYBears$10.2K@ 67.0¢
Elaran19930xb727…2a9d
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYBears$10.0K@ 67.0¢
Bunny38540x7b82…7f44
🐋—about 21 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

optimistic-dragonBears$129.9K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·2 fills
BTCGambler247Vikings$24.8K
BUY VWAP 34.0¢·1 fill
Elaran1993Bears$10.2K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill
Bunny3854Bears$10.0K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.