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Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds

● quote 1114 min ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $205.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $253.4KEvent: Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
99.7¢
YES
0.4¢
NO
0.3¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets28Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution98Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:112 trades$92.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1124 min agoofficial metadata 1115 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$5·2 wallets·$11 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMiami Marlins (YES)$18.9K@ 50¢·xifutloong3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$3.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.7K
6h
+$57.2K
tracked
$92.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$5 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.3¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1114 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1124 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1115 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for August 15 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $27.1K gross
RN12 linked markets · $301 gross
swisstony2 linked markets · $75 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Miami Marlins@ 48.0¢21h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -21.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $58 → $31 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$3.7K
6h+$57.2K
24h+$55.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.7¢
VWAP 24h49.0¢▲ above by 50.7pp
VWAP 7d49.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$4.8K
90¢
$533
85¢
$13
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$207
65¢
$131
60¢
$8.5K
55¢
$106
50¢
$49.0K
45¢
$18.2K
40¢
$6.2K
35¢
$13
30¢
$7.3K
25¢
$26
20¢
$1.5K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMiami Marlins (YES)$17.4K@ 51.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋—about 21 hours ago
BUYMiami Marlins (YES)$18.9K@ 50.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋—about 21 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xifutloong3Miami Marlins$36.3K
BUY VWAP 50.5¢·2 fills
0x5268…135dMiami Marlins$13.1K
BUY VWAP 42.1¢·5 fills
0x5268…135dCincinnati Reds$12.6K
BUY VWAP 46.6¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.