National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

● quote 4264 min ago
GeopoliticsCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $468.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $577.0KEvent: National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets8Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $4.1K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$71.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLLearner Tien (YES)$37.5K@ 94¢·AV23IUa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$30.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$30.9K
6h
−$12.4K
tracked
$228.7K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$4.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Only 0 tracked trades / 164 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • Executable quote is 4264 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 4274 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-17 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Learner Tien and Thiago Agustin Tirante in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 10, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Agustin Tirante' if Thiago Agustin Tirante advances against Learner Tien. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Learner Tien@ 91.0¢3d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Learner Tien@ 70.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$30.9K
6h$12.4K
24h+$12.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h85.2¢▲ above by 14.7pp
VWAP 7d83.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$82.0K
90¢
$46.5K
85¢
$14.8K
80¢
$4.9K
75¢
$80
70¢
$12.6K
65¢
$83.8K
60¢
$57
55¢
$0
50¢
$7.7K
45¢
$8
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLLearner Tien (YES)$16.2K@ 99.9¢0xd6d9…2c2f🐋3 days ago
SELLLearner Tien (YES)$37.5K@ 93.8¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋3 days ago
BUYLearner Tien (YES)$15.4K@ 95.0¢0xd6d9…2c2f🐋3 days ago
BUYLearner Tien (YES)$23.3K@ 69.0¢
AV23IUa0xdb85…152f
🐋3 days ago
SELLLearner Tien (YES)$10.9K@ 68.3¢0xe6a9…e35a🐋4 days ago
BUYLearner Tien (YES)$11.3K@ 71.0¢0xe6a9…e35a🐋4 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AV23IUaLearner Tien$23.3K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·1 fill
0xd6d9…2c2fLearner Tien$15.4K
BUY VWAP 95.0¢·1 fill
0xe6a9…e35aLearner Tien$11.3K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.