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Will MOUZ Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?

● quote 39s ago
Sports→Closes: —Liquidity: $191.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $178.4KEvent: BLAST Open Porto 2026: Winner
36.5¢
YES
63.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:22 trades$55.3K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 106 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $5 net·3 wallets·$3.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$20.1K@ 33¢·Outsid3rTrading

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$34.8K
tracked
$55.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: YES · $5 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 106 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
Unavailable
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If this tournament is postponed after September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of BLAST Open Porto 2026, currently scheduled for August 26, 2026 to September 6, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, BLAST; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x122c…fbed2 linked markets · $3.1K gross
0x63ad…c0722 linked markets · $117 gross
0xdf3b…880a2 linked markets · $9 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 35.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $1.2K → $2.1K · 37s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $34.8K
24hYES · $34.4K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current36.5¢
VWAP 24h28.2¢▲ above by 8.3pp
VWAP 7d27.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$12.2K
30¢
$26.9K
25¢
$6
20¢
$0
15¢
$7.6K
10¢
$10.4K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$20.1K@ 33.0¢
Outsid3rTrading0xf1ef…8cd6
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Outsid3rTradingYes$20.1K
BUY VWAP 33.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.