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Bitcoin Up or Down on August 2?

● quote 445 min ago
Crypto→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $28.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $159.3KEvent: Bitcoin Up or Down on August 2?
71.5¢
YES
28.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets62Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution79Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:58 trades$1.9K trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 451 min agoofficial metadata 446 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $169·2 wallets·$182 gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$18
6h
−$748
tracked
$1.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$169 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • •Executable quote is 445 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 451 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 446 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $1.1K → $3.6K · 56s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$18
6h−$748
24h−$1.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current71.5¢
VWAP 24h74.9¢▼ below by 3.4pp
VWAP 7d74.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$10
85¢
$545
80¢
$67
75¢
$28
70¢
← now
$522
65¢
$582
60¢
$99
55¢
$0
50¢
$3
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.