Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 27-August 2?

● quote 100 min ago
Crypto→Closes: 1 dayLiquidity: $19.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $52.6KEvent: What price will Bitcoin hit July 27-August 2?
60.0¢
YES
40.0¢
NO
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly77Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution13Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:17 trades$480 trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 152 min agoofficial metadata 103 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$11
6h
+$167
tracked
$480

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • •Executable quote is 100 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 152 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 103 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-03 04:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $54 → $74 · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$11
6h+$167
24h+$186

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current60.0¢
VWAP 24h25.5¢▲ above by 34.5pp
VWAP 7d25.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$11
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$17
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$258
20¢
$92
15¢
$101
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 27-August 2?
1.5¢$111.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 27-August 2?
0.6¢$23.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
56.5¢$90.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
11.0¢$78.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
16.5¢$74.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?
3.5¢$67.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
50.5¢$53.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
37.5¢$53.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.