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Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

● quote 350 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $640.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.0MEvent: Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs
0.8¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly28Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:89 trades$63.3K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 393 min agoofficial metadata 304 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSpirit (NO)$28.3K@ 75¢·S-Works

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$8
6h
+$1.5K
tracked
$63.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: $0 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 350 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 393 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 304 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-07-30 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 4 match between Liquid and Spirit in the BLAST Bounty Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 31 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid win the match against Spirit. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against Liquid. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 6h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 6h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
matenghehe2 linked markets · $136.1K gross
0xe907…cff62 linked markets · $333 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Spirit@ 77.0¢18h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Spirit@ 77.0¢18h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $1.1K → $2.7K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$8
6h+$1.5K
24h−$48.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.8¢
VWAP 24h22.2¢▼ below by 21.4pp
VWAP 7d22.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$50.6K
20¢
$2.7K
15¢
$3.5K
10¢
$183
5¢
$294
0¢
← now
$5.4K

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSpirit (NO)$28.3K@ 75.0¢
S-Works0xee00…cea1
🐋—about 18 hours ago
BUYSpirit (NO)$10.7K@ 75.0¢0xb8ef…2864🐋—about 18 hours ago
BUYSpirit (NO)$11.5K@ 75.0¢0xb8ef…2864🐋—about 18 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

S-WorksSpirit$28.3K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·1 fill
0xb8ef…2864Spirit$22.1K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.