Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins

● quote 28 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $189.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $606.6KEvent: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
98.7¢
YES
1.4¢
NO
0.5¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:101 trades$71.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 36 min agoofficial metadata 28 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$38.2K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$38.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKansas City Royals (YES)$38.3K@ 45¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$2.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.5K
6h
+$13.8K
tracked
$71.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$38.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.5¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Since latest position change: +55.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 28 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 36 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 55.9pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-06 17:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins, scheduled for July 30 at 1:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game. This market will resolve to "Minnesota Twins" if the Minnesota Twins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Kansas City Royals2h ago
Outcome checks pending
POSITION CHANGEBUY Kansas City Royals@ 43.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +24.0pp1h CONFIRMED +46.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Kansas City Royals@ 46.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Minnesota Twins@ 55.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 3.5pp · near-book depth $13.9K$24 · 11s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$2.5K
6h+$13.8K
24h+$13.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current98.7¢
VWAP 24h47.0¢▲ above by 51.6pp
VWAP 7d47.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$414
80¢
$191
75¢
$23
70¢
$184
65¢
$669
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$38.5K
40¢
$28.0K
35¢
$3
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYKansas City Royals (YES)$38.3K@ 45.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYMinnesota Twins (NO)$27.9K@ 56.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafKansas City Royals$38.3K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill
SDTradingMinnesota Twins$27.9K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.