Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals

● quote 12 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $221.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
52.0¢
YES
48.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets21Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority47Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:61 trades$111.6K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 16 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSt. Louis Cardinals (NO)$64.0K@ 64¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$3.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.7K
6h
−$39.8K
tracked
$111.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$50.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 67% · priority 47

Since latest liquidity absorption: -4.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 12 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 19 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-06 18:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals, scheduled for July 30 at 2:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. This market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals" if the St. Louis Cardinals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY St. Louis Cardinals43m ago
Outcome checks pending
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY St. Louis Cardinals@ 53.0¢54m ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY St. Louis Cardinals@ 53.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $13.7K$7.5K · 29s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$3.7K
6h$39.8K
24h$39.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.0¢
VWAP 24h39.5¢▲ above by 12.6pp
VWAP 7d39.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$60
45¢
$24.8K
40¢
$162
35¢
$71.7K
30¢
$210
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSt. Louis Cardinals (NO)$64.0K@ 64.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYChicago Cubs (YES)$13.8K@ 48.0¢0xd696…8a49🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563St. Louis Cardinals$64.0K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill
0xd696…8a49Chicago Cubs$13.8K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.