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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies

● quote 17683 min ago
Sports→Closes: 5 daysLiquidity: $351.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $185.9KEvent: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets55Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$28.0K@ 63¢·0x8239…d9a3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$820
6h
+$27.4K
tracked
$29.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 32 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 17683 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 17701 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 00:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Colorado Rockies, scheduled for August 3 at 8:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. This market will resolve to "Colorado Rockies" if the Colorado Rockies win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Tampa Bay Rays12d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 76.0¢12d ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp1h CONFIRMED +21.2pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$820
6h+$27.4K
24h+$27.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h65.0¢▲ above by 34.9pp
VWAP 7d65.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.5K
90¢
$59
85¢
$0
80¢
$101
75¢
$202
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$28.0K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTampa Bay Rays (YES)$28.0K@ 63.0¢0x8239…d9a3🐋—12 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.