Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

● quote 1238 min ago
SportsCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $216.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $253.5KEvent: Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets52Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:75 trades$12.9K trackedsource coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 1251 min agoofficial metadata 1239 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$52·3 wallets·$139 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMiami Marlins (YES)$22.8K@ 47¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$4.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.9K
6h
+$7.8K
tracked
$12.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$52 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 1238 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 1251 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 1239 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-07 23:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and New York Mets, scheduled for July 31 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Miami Marlins@ 48.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +43.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $68.8K$268 · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$4.9K
6h+$7.8K
24h+$30.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h63.6¢▲ above by 36.3pp
VWAP 7d63.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$9.6K
90¢
$754
85¢
$433
80¢
$0
75¢
$1.6K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$82
45¢
$23.3K
40¢
$55
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMiami Marlins (YES)$22.8K@ 47.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1Miami Marlins$22.8K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.