Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles

● quote 1245 min ago
SportsCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $291.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $435.2KEvent: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles
2.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets23Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:131 trades$24.4K trackedsource coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 90%
tape 1251 min agoofficial metadata 1248 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $16.0K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$16.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBaltimore Orioles (NO)$16.0K@ 52¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$142
6h
+$20.5K
tracked
$24.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$16.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 1245 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 1251 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 1248 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-07 23:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for July 31 at 7:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xbca0…97052 linked markets · $9.6K gross
0xaa4f…b1742 linked markets · $160 gross
0xcdbf…baf32 linked markets · $102 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Baltimore Orioles@ 52.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $84$0 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$142
6h+$20.5K
24h+$4.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.0¢
VWAP 24h52.8¢▼ below by 50.7pp
VWAP 7d52.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$5
80¢
$8
75¢
$12.8K
70¢
$1.5K
65¢
$108
60¢
$629
55¢
$4.9K
50¢
$5
45¢
$26.1K
40¢
$23
35¢
$2.7K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$237
5¢
$526
0¢
← now
$930

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (YES)$10.0K@ 48.0¢0xf559…f462🐋1 day ago
BUYBaltimore Orioles (NO)$16.0K@ 52.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Baltimore Orioles$16.0K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
0xf559…f462Philadelphia Phillies$10.0K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.