Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds

● quote 1282 min ago
SportsCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $503.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $684.4KEvent: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets78Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:196 trades$12.8K trackedsource coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 98%
tape 1299 min agoofficial metadata 1281 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$10.0K·6 wallets(1🐋)·$12.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPittsburgh Pirates (YES)$10.8K@ 54¢·Feromont

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$150
6h
+$12.2K
tracked
$12.8K

6 verified profitable wallets: +$10.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 1282 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 1299 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 1281 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-07 22:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for July 31 at 6:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
swisstony2 linked markets · $382 gross
0x83d9…10d92 linked markets · $1 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 18.0pp · near-book depth $2$67 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$150
6h+$12.2K
24h+$12.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h51.0¢▼ below by 50.9pp
VWAP 7d51.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$967
80¢
$134
75¢
$358
70¢
$909
65¢
$2.8K
60¢
$612
55¢
$556
50¢
$11.5K
45¢
$6.3K
40¢
$848
35¢
$0
30¢
$2.1K
25¢
$1.4K
20¢
$2.1K
15¢
$254
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$3

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYPittsburgh Pirates (YES)$10.8K@ 54.0¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

FeromontPittsburgh Pirates$10.8K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.