San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres

● quote 1207 min ago
SportsCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $243.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $783.4KEvent: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
65.5¢
YES
34.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:53 trades$99.4K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1220 min agoofficial metadata 1212 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $69.0K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$70.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Diego Padres (NO)$69.5K@ 60¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$443
tracked
$99.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$69.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 1207 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 1220 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 1212 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-07 01:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres, scheduled for July 30 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $92.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY San Diego Padres@ 56.0¢21h ago
15m INVALIDATED -26.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
POSITION CHANGEBUY San Diego Padres@ 61.0¢23h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY San Diego Padres@ 61.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
POSITION CHANGEBUY San Francisco Giants@ 41.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $14$3 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$443
24h$40.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current65.5¢
VWAP 24h40.4¢▲ above by 25.1pp
VWAP 7d40.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$85
65¢
← now
$17
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$512
40¢
$98.6K
35¢
$177
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSan Diego Padres (NO)$69.5K@ 60.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋1 day ago
BUYSan Francisco Giants (YES)$27.9K@ 41.0¢0x1b20…3ab0🐋1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafSan Diego Padres$69.5K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
0x1b20…3ab0San Francisco Giants$27.9K
BUY VWAP 41.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.