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New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs

● quote 139 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $744.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $213.0KEvent: New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs
39.5¢
YES
60.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:25 trades$15.8K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 7%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 159 min agoofficial metadata 142 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNew York Yankees (YES)$11.2K@ 42¢·0x4fd6…c61e

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$229
6h
+$8.6K
tracked
$15.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$5 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 139 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 159 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 142 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-07 18:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for July 31 at 2:20PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $24.8K gross
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $125 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$229
6h+$8.6K
24h+$8.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current39.5¢
VWAP 24h41.5¢▼ below by 2.0pp
VWAP 7d41.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$15.7K
35¢
← now
$3
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNew York Yankees (YES)$11.2K@ 42.0¢0x4fd6…c61e🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x4fd6…c61eNew York Yankees$11.2K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.