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Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

● quote 197 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $151.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $946.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs
59.5¢
YES
40.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection79Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets31Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority72Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:90 trades$50.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 207 min agoofficial metadata 199 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAstralis (NO)$39.5K@ 58¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$39.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$39.5K
6h
−$38.0K
tracked
$50.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$38.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 72

Since latest deadline positioning: -22.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 197 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 207 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 199 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-31 22:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 1 match between paiN and Astralis in the BLAST Bounty Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 30 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "paiN" if paiN win the match against Astralis. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win the match against paiN. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x6e2c…787c2 linked markets · $8.0K gross
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $870 gross
0x3471…f17e2 linked markets · $281 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Astralis@ 63.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -10.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Astralis@ 63.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -10.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $14.0K → $3.8K · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$39.5K
6h−$38.0K
24h−$38.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current59.5¢
VWAP 24h42.0¢▲ above by 17.5pp
VWAP 7d42.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$1.7K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.