Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves

● quote 1187 min ago
SportsCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $648.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.2MEvent: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection74Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:110 trades$89.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 1200 min agoofficial metadata 1187 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $556·4 wallets·$556 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAtlanta Braves (NO)$65.0K@ 84¢·0x7d6d…2654

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$65.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$65.2K
6h
−$86.5K
tracked
$89.2K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$556 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 1187 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 1200 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 1187 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-06 23:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves, scheduled for July 30 at 7:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. This market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves" if the Atlanta Braves win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Atlanta Braves20h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Atlanta Braves@ 83.0¢20h ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
POSITION CHANGEBUY Atlanta Braves@ 59.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Atlanta Braves@ 60.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $71$8 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$65.2K
6h$86.5K
24h$86.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h22.2¢▼ below by 22.1pp
VWAP 7d22.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$7
70¢
$179
65¢
$68
60¢
$34
55¢
$0
50¢
$152
45¢
$23
40¢
$19.1K
35¢
$2.1K
30¢
$101
25¢
$0
20¢
$432
15¢
$65.3K
10¢
$127
5¢
$323
0¢
← now
$38

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAtlanta Braves (NO)$65.0K@ 84.1¢0x7d6d…2654🐋about 21 hours ago
BUYAtlanta Braves (NO)$18.8K@ 59.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x7d6d…2654Atlanta Braves$65.0K
BUY VWAP 84.1¢·1 fill
0x5e94…5ba1Atlanta Braves$18.8K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.