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LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

● quote 258 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $532.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.5MEvent: LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:194 trades$134.4K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 9%BUY/SELL known 98%
tape 436 min agoofficial metadata 257 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$111·2 wallets·$111 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYThunderTalk Gaming (YES)$29.5K@ 31¢·0xe907…cff6

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$13.5K
tracked
$134.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$111 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 258 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 436 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 257 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-30 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between ThunderTalk Gaming and JD Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for July 30 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win the match against JD Gaming. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win the match against ThunderTalk Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe907…cff63 linked markets · $75.2K gross
1111111111152 linked markets · $59.5K gross
0xa469…07822 linked markets · $6.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 9.5pp · near-book depth $1.9K → $2.0K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$13.5K
24h+$44.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h20.8¢▼ below by 20.7pp
VWAP 7d20.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$8.7K
55¢
$0
50¢
$33
45¢
$1.4K
40¢
$3.3K
35¢
$26.0K
30¢
$29.7K
25¢
$0
20¢
$187
15¢
$3.6K
10¢
$0
5¢
$1
0¢
← now
$59.1K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLJD Gaming (NO)$21.9K@ 99.9¢0x986b…bdc6🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYJD Gaming (NO)$19.8K@ 99.0¢
Sisyphus.0xfc25…1f7f
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYThunderTalk Gaming (YES)$29.5K@ 31.0¢0xe907…cff6🐋—about 12 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe907…cff6ThunderTalk Gaming$30.0K
BUY VWAP 31.0¢·18 fills
Sisyphus.JD Gaming$19.8K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.