UFC Fight Night: Dustin Jacoby vs. Muhammad Said (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)

● quote 84 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $39.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $305.3KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Dustin Jacoby vs. Muhammad Said (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%
24h sample:38 trades$51.7K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 98%
tape 202 min agoofficial metadata 88 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMuhammad Said (NO)$48.5K@ 37¢·Talvez10

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$47.9K
tracked
$51.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 84 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 202 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 88 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-26 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Dustin Jacoby" if Dustin Jacoby is officially declared the winner of the fight against Muhammad Said at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov, scheduled for July 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Muhammad Said" if Muhammad Said is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 8, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Muhammad Said@ 37.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $2.8K → $3.7K · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h−$47.9K
24h−$47.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h61.4¢▼ below by 61.3pp
VWAP 7d61.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$48.7K
55¢
$716
50¢
$44
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$195
30¢
$150
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$1.1K

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMuhammad Said (NO)$48.5K@ 37.0¢
Talvez100xa710…23c4
🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Talvez10Muhammad Said$48.5K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.