UFC Fight Night: Brendson Ribeiro vs. Magomed Tuchalov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)

● quote 103 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $94.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $543.9KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Brendson Ribeiro vs. Magomed Tuchalov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)
0.2¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution29Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:81 trades$144.3K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 27%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 209 min agoofficial metadata 104 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMagomed Tuchalov (NO)$110.0K@ 88¢·surfandturf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$112.2K
tracked
$144.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$110.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 103 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 209 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 104 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-26 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Brendson Ribeiro" if Brendson Ribeiro is officially declared the winner of the fight against Magomed Tuchalov at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr., scheduled for July 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Magomed Tuchalov" if Magomed Tuchalov is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 8, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Magomed Tuchalov6h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Magomed Tuchalov@ 59.0¢6h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 3.5pp · near-book depth $20.3K → $3.0K · 6s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h−$112.2K
24h−$112.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.2¢
VWAP 24h12.4¢▼ below by 12.2pp
VWAP 7d12.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$369
65¢
$48
60¢
$49
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$500
40¢
$0
35¢
$188
30¢
$50
25¢
$5
20¢
$0
15¢
$344
10¢
$142.0K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$548

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMagomed Tuchalov (NO)$110.0K@ 88.0¢
surfandturf0x9f2f…2ca8
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYBrendson Ribeiro (YES)$14.8K@ 13.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYMagomed Tuchalov (NO)$15.0K@ 88.0¢0xaed0…6f18🐋—about 7 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$1.3Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
100.0¢$843.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$807.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?
100.0¢$806.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
UFC Fight Night: Mike Davis vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)
0.3¢$777.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
UFC Fight Night: Wellington Turman vs. Islam Dulatov (Welterweight, Main Card)
48.5¢$695.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
0.3¢$558.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?
99.7¢$435.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

surfandturfMagomed Tuchalov$110.0K
BUY VWAP 88.0¢·1 fill
0xaed0…6f18Magomed Tuchalov$15.0K
BUY VWAP 88.0¢·1 fill
Sassy-BucketBrendson Ribeiro$14.8K
BUY VWAP 13.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.