UFC Fight Night: Mike Davis vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)

● quote 42 min ago

Sports→Closes: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $28.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $777.1KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Mike Davis vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)

0.4¢

YES

99.6¢

0.4¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution82Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%

24h sample:67 trades$49.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 114 min agoofficial metadata 44 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMike Davis (YES)$35.0K@ 33¢·Sassy-Bucket

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

+$5.8K

tracked

$49.8K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?

0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 42 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 114 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 44 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolving

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-07-26 03:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Mike Davis" if Mike Davis is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nurullo Aliev at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr., scheduled for July 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Nurullo Aliev" if Nurullo Aliev is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 8, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Mike Davis@ 33.0¢6h ago

15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE

LARGE FLOWBUY Mike Davis@ 32.0¢7h ago

15m STALLED +0.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h INVALIDATED -31.8pp

Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $2.0K → $50 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$0

6h+$5.8K

24h+$42.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current0.4¢

VWAP 24h30.2¢▼ below by 29.8pp

VWAP 7d30.2¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢