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Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays

● quote 195 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $400.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $686.2KEvent: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection64Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 48%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:106 trades$30.9K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 64%
tape 204 min agoofficial metadata 197 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $3.0K·3 wallets·$3.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTampa Bay Rays (NO)$4.3K@ 100¢·0x2ada…2f28

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$12.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$12.7K
6h
−$7.9K
tracked
$30.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$3.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 48% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •BUY/SELL is known for 64% of tracked volume.
  • •Executable quote is 195 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 204 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 16:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for July 26 at 12:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $32.3K gross
0xaa3c…56072 linked markets · $38 gross
0x61f6…e4972 linked markets · $30 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $106.1K → $4.3K · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$12.7K
6h−$7.9K
24h−$8.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h21.6¢▼ below by 21.5pp
VWAP 7d21.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$5.0K
40¢
$910
35¢
$11
30¢
$1.0K
25¢
$75
20¢
$138
15¢
$3.6K
10¢
$4.2K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$4.9K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.