LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner

● quote 168 min ago
SportsCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $737.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.0MEvent: LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%
24h sample:4 trades$98.4K tracked100% 🐋source coverage 10%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 364 min agoofficial metadata 169 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMovistar KOI (YES)$37.5K@ 75¢·111111111115

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$98.4K
tracked
$98.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +10.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Only 4 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • Executable quote is 168 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 364 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-26 20:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Movistar KOI and Team Vitality in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for July 26 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI win Game 2 against Team Vitality. This market will resolve to "Team Vitality" if Team Vitality win Game 2 against Movistar KOI. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
1111111111152 linked markets · $108.8K gross
SineNooneEI2 linked markets · $18.6K gross
0xe16e…bd582 linked markets · $2.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Movistar KOI@ 90.0¢6h ago
15m INVALIDATED -84.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Movistar KOI@ 90.0¢6h ago
15m INVALIDATED -84.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $2$9 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$98.4K
24h+$98.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h74.3¢▼ below by 73.3pp
VWAP 7d74.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$37.5K
70¢
$60.9K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMovistar KOI (YES)$32.4K@ 73.7¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYMovistar KOI (YES)$14.8K@ 74.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYMovistar KOI (YES)$37.5K@ 75.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYMovistar KOI (YES)$13.8K@ 74.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

111111111115Movistar KOI$98.4K
BUY VWAP 74.3¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.