UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Urbina vs. Vlasto Cepo (Middleweight, Prelims)

● quote 152 min ago
SportsCloses: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $215.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $380.2KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Urbina vs. Vlasto Cepo (Middleweight, Prelims)
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%
24h sample:19 trades$204.4K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 162 min agoofficial metadata 155 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYVlasto Cepo (NO)$194.5K@ 73¢·0x1b20…3ab0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$9.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$9.7K
6h
−$204.4K
tracked
$204.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +99.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 152 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 162 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 155 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Gilbert Urbina" if Gilbert Urbina is officially declared the winner of the fight against Vlasto Cepo at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Vlasto Cepo" if Vlasto Cepo is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Vlasto Cepo@ 0.1¢3h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $393$256 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$9.7K
6h$204.4K
24h$204.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h30.4¢▲ above by 69.5pp
VWAP 7d30.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$9.7K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$194.7K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYVlasto Cepo (NO)$194.5K@ 73.0¢0x1b20…3ab0🐋about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1b20…3ab0Vlasto Cepo$194.5K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.