UFC Fight Night: Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)

● quote 42 min ago

Sports→Closes: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $394.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $301.2KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)

1.0¢

YES

99.9¢

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly45Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:30 trades$70.1K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 23%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 73 min agoofficial metadata 44 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNavajo Stirling (NO)$42.7K@ 75¢·Talvez10

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

+$746

−$68.2K

tracked

$70.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$42.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Since latest deadline positioning: +23.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 42 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 73 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 44 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

proposed

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-02 03:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Jan Blachowicz" if Jan Blachowicz is officially declared the winner of the fight against Navajo Stirling at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Navajo Stirling" if Navajo Stirling is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Navajo Stirling@ 77.0¢3h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY Navajo Stirling@ 77.0¢3h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY Navajo Stirling@ 77.0¢3h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Latest book event: NO DOWN 9.5pp · near-book depth $436 → $2.2K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$746

6h−$68.2K

24h−$68.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current1.0¢

VWAP 24h24.6¢▼ below by 23.6pp

VWAP 7d24.6¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢