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Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals

● quote 1309 min ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $256.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $484.1KEvent: Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly7Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:71 trades$55.7K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1365 min agoofficial metadata 1310 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCincinnati Reds (YES)$27.1K@ 51¢·0xfe54…41d6

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$90
6h
+$2.2K
tracked
$55.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$5 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1309 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1365 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1310 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-01 23:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals, scheduled for July 25 at 7:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. This market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals" if the St. Louis Cardinals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x22da…28662 linked markets · $37 gross
swisstony2 linked markets · $13 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Cincinnati Reds@ 50.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -17.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $11 → $1.1K · 7s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$90
6h+$2.2K
24h+$52.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h48.6¢▼ below by 47.6pp
VWAP 7d48.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$50.0K
45¢
$525
40¢
$0
35¢
$36
30¢
$3.5K
25¢
$1.4K
20¢
$78
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$9
0¢
← now
$227

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYCincinnati Reds (YES)$27.1K@ 50.9¢0xfe54…41d6🐋—1 day ago
BUYCincinnati Reds (YES)$17.9K@ 50.0¢0xfe54…41d6🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xfe54…41d6Cincinnati Reds$45.0K
BUY VWAP 50.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.