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Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles

● quote 1365 min ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $271.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $396.6KEvent: Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets92Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:70 trades$15.1K trackedsource coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 1367 min agoofficial metadata 1358 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $4.3K·4 wallets·$4.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBaltimore Orioles (NO)$30.0K@ 51¢·xifutloong3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$2.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.8K
6h
−$30.7K
tracked
$15.1K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$4.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1365 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1367 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1358 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-01 23:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for July 25 at 7:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves" if the Atlanta Braves win the game. This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 23h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 23h ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Baltimore Orioles1d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Baltimore Orioles@ 54.0¢1d ago
15m CONFIRMED +12.0pp1h CONFIRMED +9.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $12.5K → $6.9K · 69s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$2.8K
6h−$30.7K
24h−$30.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h40.1¢▼ below by 40.0pp
VWAP 7d40.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$70
50¢
$276
45¢
$32.9K
40¢
$208
35¢
$114
30¢
$1.8K
25¢
$5.5K
20¢
$127
15¢
$16
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$5.3K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYBaltimore Orioles (NO)$30.0K@ 51.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xifutloong3Baltimore Orioles$30.0K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.