Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals

● quote 83 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $940.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $258.2KEvent: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals
44.5¢
YES
55.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly2Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%
24h sample:21 trades$53.6K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 96%
tape 101 min agoofficial metadata 87 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYWashington Nationals (NO)$27.4K@ 58¢·Talvez10

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$16
6h
+$23.2K
tracked
$53.6K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 83 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 101 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 87 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-01 20:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals, scheduled for July 25 at 4:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Arizona Diamondbacks@ 42.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Washington Nationals@ 59.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$16
6h+$23.2K
24h$4.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.5¢
VWAP 24h42.0¢▲ above by 2.5pp
VWAP 7d42.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$410
40¢
← now
$51.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYArizona Diamondbacks (YES)$18.9K@ 42.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋about 6 hours ago
BUYWashington Nationals (NO)$27.4K@ 58.0¢
Talvez100xa710…23c4
🐋about 8 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner
63.5¢$1.3Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?
100.0¢$817.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
UFC Fight Night: Mike Davis vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)
0.4¢$777.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$722.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
UFC Fight Night: Wellington Turman vs. Islam Dulatov (Welterweight, Main Card)
48.5¢$694.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Team Vitality vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner
0.1¢$636.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
0.3¢$548.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
UFC Fight Night: Brendson Ribeiro vs. Magomed Tuchalov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)
0.1¢$543.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Talvez10Washington Nationals$27.4K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill
SDTradingArizona Diamondbacks$23.1K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.