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Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox

● quote 1146 min ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $118.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $436.4KEvent: Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox
99.8¢
YES
0.2¢
NO
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly64Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:158 trades$76.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 18%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1162 min agoofficial metadata 1151 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$73.6K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$74.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHouston Astros (YES)$73.9K@ 46¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$496
6h
+$73.9K
tracked
$76.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$73.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 1146 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1162 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1151 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-31 23:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox, scheduled for July 24 at 7:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x4f29…7a7e2 linked markets · $103 gross
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $102 gross
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $76 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Houston Astros@ 47.0¢24h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $175 → $1.8K · 6s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$496
6h+$73.9K
24h+$73.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.8¢
VWAP 24h46.4¢▲ above by 53.4pp
VWAP 7d46.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$289
90¢
$709
85¢
$47
80¢
$339
75¢
$33
70¢
$12
65¢
$17
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$74.0K
40¢
$22
35¢
$11
30¢
$19
25¢
$7
20¢
$415
15¢
$78
10¢
$487
5¢
$136
0¢
$10

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYHouston Astros (YES)$73.9K@ 46.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafHouston Astros$73.9K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.