LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

● quote 535 min ago
SportsCloses: about 9 hoursLiquidity: $203.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $2.0MEvent: LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly8Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets77Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:549 trades$129.1K trackedsource coverage 7%BUY/SELL known 95%
tape 551 min agoofficial metadata 538 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$16.9K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$21.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$18.0K@ 52¢·esportGG

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$326
6h
+$22.7K
tracked
$129.1K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$16.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 535 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 551 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 538 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-01 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Nongshim Red Force and BNK FEARX in the LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group, initially scheduled for August 1 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nongshim Red Force" if Nongshim Red Force win the match against BNK FEARX. This market will resolve to "BNK FEARX" if BNK FEARX win the match against Nongshim Red Force. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x04b1…d2243 linked markets · $69.7K gross
0x3ebd…b66a2 linked markets · $19.7K gross
0x3471…f17e2 linked markets · $5.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY YES@ 92.0¢13h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $4.2K$5.3K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$326
6h+$22.7K
24h+$21.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h62.1¢▲ above by 37.8pp
VWAP 7d62.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$21.7K
90¢
$1.3K
85¢
$0
80¢
$25
75¢
$17.9K
70¢
$2.7K
65¢
$550
60¢
$2.3K
55¢
$3.7K
50¢
$53.0K
45¢
$14.6K
40¢
$654
35¢
$0
30¢
$1.3K
25¢
$2.1K
20¢
$690
15¢
$6.2K
10¢
$487
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$18.0K@ 52.4¢
esportGG0xf070…ac55
🐋about 13 hours ago
BUYNongshim Red Force (YES)$17.8K@ 75.0¢0x3954…22d9🐋about 14 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

esportGGNongshim Red Force$18.0K
BUY VWAP 52.4¢·1 fill
0x3954…22d9Nongshim Red Force$17.8K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.