UFC Fight Night: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Prelims)

● quote 156 min ago

Sports→Closes: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $35.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $152.6KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Prelims)

0.1¢

YES

99.9¢

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly12Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:22 trades$22.3K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 15%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 177 min agoofficial metadata 157 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSam Patterson (NO)$10.5K@ 84¢·surfandturf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

+$80

−$16.6K

tracked

$22.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$10.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 156 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 177 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 157 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolving

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-07-26 03:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Santiago Ponzinibbio" if Santiago Ponzinibbio is officially declared the winner of the fight against Sam Patterson at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov, scheduled for July 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Sam Patterson" if Sam Patterson is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 8, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$80

6h−$16.6K

24h−$16.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current0.1¢

VWAP 24h15.4¢▼ below by 15.3pp

VWAP 7d15.4¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢