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LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner

● quote 264 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $367.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $594.4KEvent: LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly7Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%
24h sample:81 trades$66.1K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 11%BUY/SELL known 82%
tape 274 min agoofficial metadata 263 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMovistar KOI (YES)$16.0K@ 64¢·SineNooneEI

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$133
6h
+$17.6K
tracked
$66.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 264 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 274 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 263 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-26 20:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Movistar KOI and Team Vitality in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for July 26 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI" if Movistar KOI win Game 1 against Team Vitality. This market will resolve to "Team Vitality" if Team Vitality win Game 1 against Movistar KOI. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
1111111111152 linked markets · $108.8K gross
SineNooneEI2 linked markets · $18.6K gross
0xe16e…bd582 linked markets · $2.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$133
6h+$17.6K
24h+$17.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h67.7¢▲ above by 32.2pp
VWAP 7d67.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$5.1K
90¢
$40
85¢
$0
80¢
$4
75¢
$27
70¢
$0
65¢
$10.6K
60¢
$38.5K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMovistar KOI (YES)$12.1K@ 64.0¢
fkgggg2mouzfuria0x52ec…a6f3
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYTeam Vitality (NO)$10.4K@ 37.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYMovistar KOI (YES)$16.0K@ 64.0¢
SineNooneEI0x3833…33d1
🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SineNooneEIMovistar KOI$16.0K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill
fkgggg2mouzfuriaMovistar KOI$12.1K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill
111111111115Team Vitality$10.4K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.