UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Valter Walker (Heavyweight, Prelims)

● quote 188 min ago

Sports→Closes: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $27.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $363.7KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Valter Walker (Heavyweight, Prelims)

0.5¢

YES

99.5¢

0.6¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution82Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%

24h sample:159 trades$122.2K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 96%

tape 204 min agoofficial metadata 189 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYValter Walker (NO)$51.9K@ 62¢·Talvez10

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE

What the tape says

NO pressure: −$6.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

−$6.2K

−$108.6K

tracked

$122.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?

0.6¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +36.8pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 188 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 204 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 189 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolving

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-07-26 03:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Thomas Petersen" if Thomas Petersen is officially declared the winner of the fight against Valter Walker at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr., scheduled for July 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Valter Walker" if Valter Walker is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 8, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Valter Walker@ 63.0¢6h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY Valter Walker@ 63.0¢6h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Latest book event: YES UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $133 → $611 · 4s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h−$6.2K

6h−$108.6K

24h−$108.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current0.5¢

VWAP 24h37.2¢▼ below by 36.7pp

VWAP 7d37.2¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢