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Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?

Politics→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $87.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $109.6KEvent: Clacton by-election: 2nd place
89.5¢
YES payout
10.5¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$19.2K@ 97¢·Flipadelphia

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-13 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 10d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 10d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 93.0¢21d ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h STALLED +2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $4.5K
24hYES · $44.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current89.5¢
VWAP 24h97.7¢▼ below by 8.2pp
VWAP 7d97.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$63.2K
90¢
$17.1K
85¢
← now
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$18.0K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$19.2K@ 96.8¢
Flipadelphia0x4488…e319
🐋—10 days ago
BUYYES$17.1K@ 90.0¢
NonceChaser0xb1ca…1705
🐋—21 days ago
BUYYES$18.0K@ 76.0¢0xe899…0899🐋—29 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.